The Trades All Agree
Depending upon which trade you look at, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is coming in at either $185 million or $190 million dollars this weekend alone.
From the trades:
J.J. Abrams’ Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could gross as much as $90 million Friday for a domestic box office debut of $185 million or more, according to early matinee returns.
Disney and Lucasfilm are being cautious in suggesting $175 million to $185 million for the weekend.
Not even The Force may be immune to some sequel fatigue. Two years ago, Rian Johnson’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi — which divided fans — opened to $220 million domestically, while Abrams’ Star Wars: The Force Awakens debuted to a then-record $248 million in 2015.
From the other trades:
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” will launch to a muscular $195 million domestically this weekend, according to midday Friday estimates.
“The Rise of Skywalker” is opening shy of the $200 million that some industry experts had predicted it would earn, though it is bowing higher than Disney’s low-ball estimates of $160 million. Even if “The Rise of Skywalker” is showing signs that Star Wars fans are feeling a little less crazed about the franchise after two prior chapters and two spin-offs (“Rogue One” and the late, lamented “Solo”), it still stands to be a massive hit.
They Are Controlling the Narrative and Flooding the Zone
The trades and the Mouse House are declaring The Rise of Skywalker to already be a “massive” hit.
And, in terms of “winner take all” in a critical opening weekend for a film that should end a forty year-long saga with an Avengers: Endgame like bang, The Rise of Skywalker caps the series badly–and proves the law abandoning the core audience in favor of audiences who never liked the franchise anyway–at the same time.
From the trades, yet again:
Heading into the weekend, Hollywood’s leading tracking service had Star Wars opening to $175 million domestically.
What Are We To Make of All of This?
Either way, coming in behind The Last Jedi is a defeat for a formerly beloved franchise, no matter how many ways you spin it, particularly when you read phrases like “franchise fatigue” and “feeling a little less than crazed.”
However, expect the %50-%60 drop off to be ridiculous after Christmas for The Rise of Skywalker but still strong enough to defeat its nearest competition, Jumanji: The Next Level, considering Cats is getting lambasted and 1917 will only appeal to older male audiences—i.e. the Ford v Ferrari demographic—when it drops on December 25th.
